How Does Jalen Brunson Do It?
A look into how Jalen Brunson is one-of-a-kind and getting even better.
I don’t think that anyone expected what we’ve seen out of Jalen Brunson this season. We can be real for a second. It’s okay... he’s exceeded expectations the fanbase and the New York Knicks had for him when the organization gave him a four-year, $104 million contract in July 2022.
Most Knicks’ fans were saying that the former Dallas Mavericks’ guard was an underrated signing. That the maneuvering of cap space and draft picks was worth it. But nobody, and I mean nobody, could’ve expected him to be in the conversation to make an All-NBA team this season.
Brunson is averaging 23.8 points per game and 6.2 assists per game in 60 games this season. He’s shooting 48.5% from the field and a career-high 41.0% from three-point range. He’s taking 17.5 shots per game and 4.6 three-point attempts per game – both obviously being career-highs given that he spent his first four NBA seasons either coming off the bench or playing with Luka Doncic, who is one of the highest-usage players in the NBA.
Those numbers are amazing... you couldn’t ask for anything more, especially with how his teammate Julius Randle is playing himself. But we HAVE to look at his last 25 games...
28.8 PPG, 5.6 APG, 51.3% FG%, 45.1% 3P%
In this span of him playing like the top point guard in the Eastern Conference, 73.2% of his shots are still coming from inside the three-point arc. That’s right on par for what his season average was coming into this stretch (73.9%).
He’s just shifted into a new gear – and his play in the month of February garnered an Eastern Conference Player of the Month award. And what did he do in his first game of March on Wednesday? 39 points on 15-of-18 shooting (5-of-6 from three) and 6 assists. Keep in mind that 30 of those 39 points came before halftime and he went 3-of-4 for nine points in the second half because the Brooklyn Nets were doubling him as soon as he breathed on the basketball.
But let’s kick it back into an overarching look at his season as a whole... what makes Jalen Brunson such a unique NBA talent and how can we explain his emergence into a star this year?
Brunson is not known for this athleticism and he’s 6-foot-1 (allegedly). You can’t thrive in the NBA usually at that height if you’re not excelling from beyond the arc... right? Brunson was pretty good in Dallas at creating shots himself inside the arc without relying on a three-point shot and he’s been similar this year... except he’s actually really good from beyond the arc now, as mentioned before with his above-40% clip from three this season.
The focus – still – is his ability to make shots one-on-one while isoing. According to the BBall Index, Brunson is one of the most talented small guard (6’4” and under) iso scorers in the NBA when considering the number of times he’s isoing.
As you can see in this scatter plot, Jalen Brunson isn’t the best of that group – that’s reserved for generational scorers like Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard – but he’s right up there with them. And you cant’t forget: Everyone knows Brunson’s game differs pretty drastically from Irving’s and Lillard’s.
This season, 73.9% of Brunson’s shots have come from inside the three-point arc. This isn’t really anything new, considering around 75% of his field goal attempts in 2021-22 were from two-point range. Brunson thrives at getting to his spots and converting.
His two-point attempt rate is around the same number as Ja Morant (74.7%) and De’Aaron Fox (71.1%), but those two guys aren’t close to having the impact in the iso game as Brunson (though Fox is the closest). Morant and Fox are two guys that definitely have many legs up in terms of athleticism over Brunson, too.
The guys that Brunson is close to – Irving and Lillard – make their living way more from three-point land. Only 57.5% of Irving’s shots come from inside the three-point arc. Lillard is best known for his sharpshooting and that’s furthered by just 41.7% of his shots coming from inside the arc. Again, these aren’t remotely the same type of players as Brunson – making Brunson so unique.
Shown above is a shot chart heat map for Brunson this season – courtesy of Cleaning the Glass. Look at how dark in and around the paint is. That’s where Brunson really makes his living.
A big part of his success is how good his floater is, which is also a big part of De’Aaron Fox’s game – but not to the creation extent of Brunson, according to BBall Index. You have to remember that Fox has way more athleticism than Brunson, as previously stated and proven by Fox out-dunking Brunson 30-to-2 this season (Brunson has 11 career dunks in the NBA). Brunson’s ability to be successful in these scenarios is due to craftiness.
This headshot plot from Bball Index shows that Fox is the most successful at making floaters among NBA guards, but that Brunson does it best at the highest frequency. When you’re short, stocky, and sporting a not-as-athletic body type, you absolutely have to be good at this.
Something to note: Brunson hasn’t been this great at floaters until as recently as his final season in Dallas. He’s taken a huge leap over the last two seasons, and it’s helped his overall game.
His success inside the arc only tells half the story of the evolution of Jalen Brunson. He’s gone from an above-average three-point shooter (B+ talent grade per BBall Index) in 2021-22 to an exceptional three-point shooter (A talent grade per BBall Index) in 2022-23.
One of my favorite developments during the 2022-23 season with Jalen Brunson has honestly been his ability to be a top-tier perimeter shooter, something that hasn’t necessarily been in his bag of tool tricks in the past. Going from an 80th percentile perimeter shooter to a 93rd percentile shooter in one season is extraordinary.
Collin Loring of The Strickland had a great tweet on Thursday really putting his jump as a three-point shooting threat this season:
Almost a four percent bump in catch-and-shoot three making and over an eight percent bump in pull-up three making. As Loring said in his quoted tweet from February, Brunson was “primed for a bigger role... and made good on it.”
Thank god he went to the Knicks, right?
On top of all of this, Brunson is an elite playmaker, as BBall Index puts him in the 99th percentile for passing efficiency and 94th percentile overall in playmaking talent. He’s exactly what the Knicks needed out of a point guard to make the leap they’ve made this season, especially over the last three months of play.
What remains to be seen is how everything will play out in the playoffs. If the Knicks end up getting an expected matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers – who they’ve beaten each of the last two times since their December rotation change/shortening – will Brunson succeed in carving up Isaac Okoro and their defense? Okoro has given Brunson fits in past games, but that has a lot to do with the way Cleveland was sending doubles at him in the pick-and-roll game. He’s playing the best basketball of his entire life right now – and his shot is falling from everywhere – so I’ll bet on the guy that’s overcome the obstacles given to him in the NBA so far.
Also, Brunson showed in last year’s postseason against current Cavs’ guard Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz that he does indeed “have that dog in him.” During that six-game series, he averaged 27.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting and 36.4% from three... and he’s an even better three-point shooter nowadays.
If Brunson can cook the rest of the regular season and in the postseason, I like the Knicks’ chances against the Cavs. If we get Julius Randle to show up – unlike in his last postseason appearance in 2020-21 – and others going, I like the Knicks to bust some brackets.